Good morning. Most of the United States begins Daylight Saving Time at 2:00 a.m. on the second Sunday in March and reverts to standard time on the first Sunday in November. So by my calculations, that means that this Sunday here in the U.S. most of us “fall back” and it will dark by dinner time.
There is a great deal of news today, so we could see some continued volatility. We have already seen Personal Income and Consumption (Spending). U.S. consumer spending, as expected, fell in September for the first time in five months. Personal income was flat last month after rising slightly in August, also as expected. Later we have the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Survey, along with a revision to the Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers. After the news we find mortgages a shade better.
Have a great weekend
Friday, October 30, 2009
10/29/09
Good morning. Early this morning mortgage rates started slightly weaker after two strong days of price gains as the stock market improved. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +60 and mortgage prices were slightly worsened.
Weekly jobless claims were down this morning, but not as much of a decline as expected. Declining continuing claims would normally be a positive for the employment outlook if this were a normal recession. Not the case; continuing claims are likely declining as unemployment benefits are ending for many that lost jobs six months ago with no extension from the Obama administration. The take away from the claims data today, as is the case every week, 500K+ a week are losing jobs and has been going on for all of this year. Job losses at 2 mil a month isn't a building block for economic recovery no matter how it is spun. Lipstick on the pig isn't enough to take it to the prom. Also at 8:30 the first look at Q3 GDP was better than expected. The better growth triggered buying in the stock index futures and drove the stock market to a better open at 9:30.
Weekly jobless claims were down this morning, but not as much of a decline as expected. Declining continuing claims would normally be a positive for the employment outlook if this were a normal recession. Not the case; continuing claims are likely declining as unemployment benefits are ending for many that lost jobs six months ago with no extension from the Obama administration. The take away from the claims data today, as is the case every week, 500K+ a week are losing jobs and has been going on for all of this year. Job losses at 2 mil a month isn't a building block for economic recovery no matter how it is spun. Lipstick on the pig isn't enough to take it to the prom. Also at 8:30 the first look at Q3 GDP was better than expected. The better growth triggered buying in the stock index futures and drove the stock market to a better open at 9:30.
10/28/09
Good morning. Durable Goods numbers (items lasting longer than 3 years) have already come out this morning, rising 1% in September as expected. This was the second increase in the last three months, and but compared with a year ago orders are down about 24 percent. The only scheduled news out for later today is New Home Sales, but we had plenty yesterday to chew on. The Case-Shiller Index saw August as its third straight month of price improvement for the bulk of the twenty cities in its survey and up 1% from July. Dallas showed the smallest drop since August 2008, while Las Vegas showed a 30 percent decrease, the most of any city. The biggest month-over-month gain was in San Francisco, which showed a 2.6% gain. Of course, economists want to see flat-to-rising prices through the winter to be sure that housing is rebounding, but skeptics point to unemployment and commercial real estate as two big hurdles to this happening.
In addition to yesterdays news, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence numbers declined in October from September’s levels, which was unexpected and did not help the equity markets. The Treasury‘s 2-yr auction went well and the results helped fixed-income securities, and mortgage prices. This morning, mortgage prices are a shade lower than yesterday afternoon.
In addition to yesterdays news, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence numbers declined in October from September’s levels, which was unexpected and did not help the equity markets. The Treasury‘s 2-yr auction went well and the results helped fixed-income securities, and mortgage prices. This morning, mortgage prices are a shade lower than yesterday afternoon.
10/27/09
Good morning. The only news out today is the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the 7AM PST Consumer Confidence number. And ahead of those numbers, and the 2-yr auction, we’re seeing a slight rebound in mortgage prices.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Mortgage Market Review - 10/26/09
This Morning…Monday, October 26, 2009:
Markets started unchanged this morning with no data or anything else of consequence. At 8:30 the DJIA opened +30 and mortgage rates were slightly higher. There are no economic releases today; Treasury will auction 5 yr notes at 1:00 this afternoon, likely to see decent demand and not generally much interest to traders. After today however the calendar is loaded and Treasury will auction an additional $116B of notes.
Last Week:
Mortgage bond prices ended the week nearly unchanged despite considerable market volatility. Trading was up and down all week. Rates improved the first portion of the week as stocks fell below key psychological levels. Unfortunately a reversal the middle portion of the week eroded the earlier improvements. Data was mixed with tame inflation readings but generally stronger than expected economic activity. For the week, interest rates were near unchanged.
The big news was Existing Home Sales on Friday which looked pretty impressive and was better than forecast. Those forecasts already included the tax credit for first-time home buyers. Sales were up almost 25% from the low in January, and 9% higher than a year ago.
This Week:
This is the last week of the months and will be filled with economic news. Today there is zip, but tomorrow we have Durable Goods for September, the Case-Shiller Index which never seems to go up, and Consumer Confidence, which seems to be holding this economy up. This report is important as markets have laid heavy bets that the economy is on the highway of recovery, but so far there is no significant improvement in consumer patterns of increased spending. These numbers are expected to be up. On Wednesday we have New Homes Sales, Thursday we have Jobless Claims and the Gross Domestic Product results. GDP expectations are for a growth rate of 3.2% for the quarter. Then on Friday comes Personal Income and Consumption, the Michigan Consumer survey, and the Chicago PMI. A big week ahead that is a huge hill to climb for the bond and mortgage markets.
EconomicIndicator
Durable Goods Orders
Tuesday, Oct. 27, 8:30 am, et
Up 0.7%
Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Confidence
Tuesday, Oct. 27, 10:00 am, et
54.0
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
2-year Treasury Note Auction
Tuesday, Oct. 27,1:30 pm, et
None
Important. $44 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
New Home Sales
Wednesday, Oct. 28, 10:00 am, et
Up 2.6%
Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
5-year Treasury Note Auction
Wednesday, Oct. 28,1:30 pm, et
None
Important. $41 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q3 Advance GDP
Thursday, Oct. 29,8:30 am, et
Up 3.1%
Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
7-year Treasury Note Auction
Thursday, Oct. 29,1:30 pm, et
None
Important. $31 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Personal Income and Outlays
Friday, Oct. 30,8:30 am, et
Unchanged,Down 0.4%
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q3 Employment Cost Index
Friday, Oct. 30,8:30 am, et
Up 0.5%
Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Friday, Oct. 30,10:00 am, et
70.0
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Market Forecast:
Supply and expected better economic releases this week are taking their toll at the moment and over the long term the path for rates is not looking particularly good. In the short haul, the Treasury auctions will take center stage again this week. If there is strong foreign demand it will likely spill over to the mortgage bond market. Weak auctions will likely result in mortgage interest rate increases. Employment cost index data will also be carefully watched.
Some Humor:
It's late fall and the Indians on a remote reservation in South Dakota asked their new chief if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets. When he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what the winter was going to be like. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he told his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect firewood to be prepared.
But, being a practical leader, after several days, he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, “Is the coming winter going to be cold?”
“It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold,” the meteorologist at the weather service responded.
So the chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more firewood in order to be prepared.
A week later, he called the National Weather Service again. “Does it still look like it is going to be a very cold winter?"
“Yes,” the man at National Weather Service again replied, “it's going to be a very cold winter.”
The chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find.
Two weeks later, the chief called the National Weather Service again. “Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?”
“Absolutely,” the man replied. “It's looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters we've ever seen.”
“How can you be so sure?” the chief asked.
The weatherman replied, “The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy.”
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a compilation of third parties to real estate, financial services and other professionals for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
Markets started unchanged this morning with no data or anything else of consequence. At 8:30 the DJIA opened +30 and mortgage rates were slightly higher. There are no economic releases today; Treasury will auction 5 yr notes at 1:00 this afternoon, likely to see decent demand and not generally much interest to traders. After today however the calendar is loaded and Treasury will auction an additional $116B of notes.
Last Week:
Mortgage bond prices ended the week nearly unchanged despite considerable market volatility. Trading was up and down all week. Rates improved the first portion of the week as stocks fell below key psychological levels. Unfortunately a reversal the middle portion of the week eroded the earlier improvements. Data was mixed with tame inflation readings but generally stronger than expected economic activity. For the week, interest rates were near unchanged.
The big news was Existing Home Sales on Friday which looked pretty impressive and was better than forecast. Those forecasts already included the tax credit for first-time home buyers. Sales were up almost 25% from the low in January, and 9% higher than a year ago.
This Week:
This is the last week of the months and will be filled with economic news. Today there is zip, but tomorrow we have Durable Goods for September, the Case-Shiller Index which never seems to go up, and Consumer Confidence, which seems to be holding this economy up. This report is important as markets have laid heavy bets that the economy is on the highway of recovery, but so far there is no significant improvement in consumer patterns of increased spending. These numbers are expected to be up. On Wednesday we have New Homes Sales, Thursday we have Jobless Claims and the Gross Domestic Product results. GDP expectations are for a growth rate of 3.2% for the quarter. Then on Friday comes Personal Income and Consumption, the Michigan Consumer survey, and the Chicago PMI. A big week ahead that is a huge hill to climb for the bond and mortgage markets.
EconomicIndicator
Durable Goods Orders
Tuesday, Oct. 27, 8:30 am, et
Up 0.7%
Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Confidence
Tuesday, Oct. 27, 10:00 am, et
54.0
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
2-year Treasury Note Auction
Tuesday, Oct. 27,1:30 pm, et
None
Important. $44 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
New Home Sales
Wednesday, Oct. 28, 10:00 am, et
Up 2.6%
Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
5-year Treasury Note Auction
Wednesday, Oct. 28,1:30 pm, et
None
Important. $41 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q3 Advance GDP
Thursday, Oct. 29,8:30 am, et
Up 3.1%
Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
7-year Treasury Note Auction
Thursday, Oct. 29,1:30 pm, et
None
Important. $31 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Personal Income and Outlays
Friday, Oct. 30,8:30 am, et
Unchanged,Down 0.4%
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q3 Employment Cost Index
Friday, Oct. 30,8:30 am, et
Up 0.5%
Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Friday, Oct. 30,10:00 am, et
70.0
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Market Forecast:
Supply and expected better economic releases this week are taking their toll at the moment and over the long term the path for rates is not looking particularly good. In the short haul, the Treasury auctions will take center stage again this week. If there is strong foreign demand it will likely spill over to the mortgage bond market. Weak auctions will likely result in mortgage interest rate increases. Employment cost index data will also be carefully watched.
Some Humor:
It's late fall and the Indians on a remote reservation in South Dakota asked their new chief if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets. When he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what the winter was going to be like. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he told his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect firewood to be prepared.
But, being a practical leader, after several days, he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, “Is the coming winter going to be cold?”
“It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold,” the meteorologist at the weather service responded.
So the chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more firewood in order to be prepared.
A week later, he called the National Weather Service again. “Does it still look like it is going to be a very cold winter?"
“Yes,” the man at National Weather Service again replied, “it's going to be a very cold winter.”
The chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find.
Two weeks later, the chief called the National Weather Service again. “Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?”
“Absolutely,” the man replied. “It's looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters we've ever seen.”
“How can you be so sure?” the chief asked.
The weatherman replied, “The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy.”
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a compilation of third parties to real estate, financial services and other professionals for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
Friday, October 23, 2009
10/23/09
Good morning. Yesterday rates worsened early in the day, and then pretty much seemed to stay put and watch the equity markets come back from Wednesday’s losses. The Leading Economic Indicators number did not help the call for lower rates: it was up more than forecasted for September and its sixth straight increase. In today’s news, Sept existing home sales expected to be up 4.7%, jumped 9.4%. Wow. The median sales price $174,900.00, 7.8 months supply, and inventory levels fell to the lowest inventories since March of 2007. As a result mortgage rates have worsened this morning. Have a great weekend and call me with any questions.
10/22/09
Good morning. Today mortgage prices are a shade worse than Wednesday afternoon’s levels. Yesterday was the Fed’s Beige Book report which comes out eight times a year and summarizes the Fed’s twelve districts. The Fed reported that the economy has shown signs of stabilizing or modestly improving, but the signs are still not enough to move the entire economy. The housing market and manufacturing activity have improved but commercial real estate remains a big concern. Inflation “ain’t no problem”, the labor market is still weak or at best mixed, and demand for bank loans was weak or declining.
This morning we had Jobless Claims, which rose more than expected last week. Yes, the employment area still looks slow. Initial claims for state jobless insurance increased to 531,000 after declining for two consecutive weeks. Analysts had forecast new claims going down to 515,000 last week. And later today we will have Leading Economic Indicators.
This morning we had Jobless Claims, which rose more than expected last week. Yes, the employment area still looks slow. Initial claims for state jobless insurance increased to 531,000 after declining for two consecutive weeks. Analysts had forecast new claims going down to 515,000 last week. And later today we will have Leading Economic Indicators.
10/21/09
The good news is that according to the median estimates, the FOMC will keep the target rate for overnight funds unchanged for another year. And yesterday, after the initial movement, rates didn’t do much and actually stayed in a pretty tight range. Here this morning things are slightly worse, in spite of stocks around the world being down, and no US economic news. Mortgages look weaker as well with pricing worsened. Later this morning, however, the Federal Reserve will release their Beige Book which details economic conditions in all the US regions. As I’ve said, all one has to do is drive down Main Street in any town and count the “For Rent” signs.
10/20/09
Good morning. Today we had Housing Starts and Building Permits. New construction of U.S. homes, however rose by less than expected in September: Housing Starts were up only.5% (Friday we have the September Existing Home Sales data, expected to show a small improvement.). We also had the Producer Price Index, expected to be flat but instead dropping .6% in September, mainly because of a 2.4 percent decline in energy prices. For the year the PPI is down 4.8%. What inflation? After the numbers mortgage rates are slightly better this morning.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Mortgage Market Review - 10/19/09
This Morning…Monday, October 19, 2009:
The markets opened lower in price this morning, but are holding at support levels. There are no economic releases on the schedule today and the market will likely float in a low end range awaiting news, while chatter will continue over the possibility the Fed is preparing to pull the trigger on higher rates. This morning, mortgage rates opened slightly higher.
Last Week:
Mortgage bond prices fell sharply last week driving mortgage rates higher. Rates were under pressure from better than expected economic news and rising stocks. Retail sales, weekly jobless claims, and industrial production data were all better than expected. The improved economic outlook had investors flocking to buy stocks, which helped the Dow Jones index to close over 10,000.
This Week:
As I mentioned there is no news today, but on the 20th we have the Producer Price Index, and Housing Starts & Building Permits. Nada for Wednesday, and then on Thursday we have Leading Economic Indicators and Jobless Claims. We finish the week off with Existing Home Sales. Two optimistic possibilities for the housing markets that are swimming around; the Obama administration is seriously considering extending the first time home buyers tax credit, and in the FOMC minutes of the 9/23 meeting there were a few members talking about the possibilities of the Fed increasing its purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities after the buy ends at the end of Q1 2010 (see comments below). This is potentially good news.
EconomicIndicator
Housing Starts
Tuesday, Oct. 20,8:30 am, et
Up 1.5%
Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Producer Price Index
Tuesday, Oct. 20,8:30 am, et
Up 0.1%,Core up 0.1%
Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Decreases may lead to lower rates.
Fed "Beige Book"
Wednesday, Oct. 21,2:00 pm, et
None
Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
Leading Economic Indicators
Thursday, Oct. 22,10:00 am, et
Up 0.8%
Important. An indication of future economic activity. A smaller increase may lead to lower rates.
Existing Home Sales
Friday, Oct. 23,10:00 am, et
Up 5.5%
Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates.
Market Forecast:
The producer price index data to be released Tuesday will be the most important data this week. Any signs of inflation will generally not bode well for mortgage bonds. The Fed "Beige Book" will factor into trading this week. Stock strength and dollar valuation will play a pivotal role in mortgage interest rates as well.
What about the future of interest rates? Opinions are very divided. Many top economists believe that our economy will grow through the rest of this year, and then slow in the first half of 2010. (How did it get to be almost “2010” already?) In a recent release they stated, “While the lack of inflation, high unemployment and excess capacity in the economy should hold interest rates down, there is a lot of uncertaint0y regarding rates immediately following the termination of the Federal Reserve’s purchase of mortgage-backed securities. No doubt the Fed will do its best to minimize adverse effects, but the elimination of these purchases will put upward pressure on all long-term rates as well as the spread between mortgage rates and Treasuries.”
In spite of credit and equity issues still being more of a concern than interest rates for most, most economists are divided on where interest rates are going. On the “they’re going higher” side, smart folks point to the Treasury's financing need of an additional $2 trillion and their stated objective to lengthen the average maturity of their debt. In addition, if the economy really does start to pick up steam, and investors increase their risk appetite, this will also put upward pressure on yields. On the “they’re going to stay low” side, economists point to the continued high unemployment, soon to be in the double digits, low consumer spending, and rough housing market in many parts of the states. Perhaps the Fed remains on hold until 2011 and then only gradually raises rates, eventually bringing the Fed funds target up to 1.00% by year end. And maybe, in spite of gold continuing to set records and oil high, inflation remains low. As you can see…nobody knows!
Some Humor:
Several men are in the locker room of a golf club. A cell phone on a bench rings and a man engages the hands free speaker-function and begins to talk. Everyone else in the room stops to listen.
MAN: "Hello"
WOMAN: "Honey, it's me. Are you at the club?"
MAN: "Yes."
WOMAN: "I am at the mall now and found this beautiful leather coat. It's only $1,000. Is it OK if I buy it?"
MAN: "Sure, go ahead if you like it that much."
WOMAN: "I also stopped by the Mercedes dealership and saw the new 2010 models. I saw one I really liked."
MAN: "How much?"
WOMAN: "$90,000."
MAN: "OK, but for that price I want it with all the options."
WOMAN: "Great! Oh, and one more thing... The house I wanted last year is back on the market. They're asking $950,000."
MAN: "Well, then go ahead and give them an offer of $900,000. They will probably take it. If not, we can go the extra 50 thousand. It's really a pretty good price."
WOMAN: "OK. I'll see you later! I love you so much!!"
MAN: "Bye! I love you, too."
The man hangs up. The other men in the locker room are staring at him in astonishment, mouths agape.....He smiles and asks: "Anyone know who this phone belongs to?"
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a compilation of third parties to real estate, financial services and other professionals for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
The markets opened lower in price this morning, but are holding at support levels. There are no economic releases on the schedule today and the market will likely float in a low end range awaiting news, while chatter will continue over the possibility the Fed is preparing to pull the trigger on higher rates. This morning, mortgage rates opened slightly higher.
Last Week:
Mortgage bond prices fell sharply last week driving mortgage rates higher. Rates were under pressure from better than expected economic news and rising stocks. Retail sales, weekly jobless claims, and industrial production data were all better than expected. The improved economic outlook had investors flocking to buy stocks, which helped the Dow Jones index to close over 10,000.
This Week:
As I mentioned there is no news today, but on the 20th we have the Producer Price Index, and Housing Starts & Building Permits. Nada for Wednesday, and then on Thursday we have Leading Economic Indicators and Jobless Claims. We finish the week off with Existing Home Sales. Two optimistic possibilities for the housing markets that are swimming around; the Obama administration is seriously considering extending the first time home buyers tax credit, and in the FOMC minutes of the 9/23 meeting there were a few members talking about the possibilities of the Fed increasing its purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities after the buy ends at the end of Q1 2010 (see comments below). This is potentially good news.
EconomicIndicator
Housing Starts
Tuesday, Oct. 20,8:30 am, et
Up 1.5%
Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Producer Price Index
Tuesday, Oct. 20,8:30 am, et
Up 0.1%,Core up 0.1%
Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Decreases may lead to lower rates.
Fed "Beige Book"
Wednesday, Oct. 21,2:00 pm, et
None
Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
Leading Economic Indicators
Thursday, Oct. 22,10:00 am, et
Up 0.8%
Important. An indication of future economic activity. A smaller increase may lead to lower rates.
Existing Home Sales
Friday, Oct. 23,10:00 am, et
Up 5.5%
Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates.
Market Forecast:
The producer price index data to be released Tuesday will be the most important data this week. Any signs of inflation will generally not bode well for mortgage bonds. The Fed "Beige Book" will factor into trading this week. Stock strength and dollar valuation will play a pivotal role in mortgage interest rates as well.
What about the future of interest rates? Opinions are very divided. Many top economists believe that our economy will grow through the rest of this year, and then slow in the first half of 2010. (How did it get to be almost “2010” already?) In a recent release they stated, “While the lack of inflation, high unemployment and excess capacity in the economy should hold interest rates down, there is a lot of uncertaint0y regarding rates immediately following the termination of the Federal Reserve’s purchase of mortgage-backed securities. No doubt the Fed will do its best to minimize adverse effects, but the elimination of these purchases will put upward pressure on all long-term rates as well as the spread between mortgage rates and Treasuries.”
In spite of credit and equity issues still being more of a concern than interest rates for most, most economists are divided on where interest rates are going. On the “they’re going higher” side, smart folks point to the Treasury's financing need of an additional $2 trillion and their stated objective to lengthen the average maturity of their debt. In addition, if the economy really does start to pick up steam, and investors increase their risk appetite, this will also put upward pressure on yields. On the “they’re going to stay low” side, economists point to the continued high unemployment, soon to be in the double digits, low consumer spending, and rough housing market in many parts of the states. Perhaps the Fed remains on hold until 2011 and then only gradually raises rates, eventually bringing the Fed funds target up to 1.00% by year end. And maybe, in spite of gold continuing to set records and oil high, inflation remains low. As you can see…nobody knows!
Some Humor:
Several men are in the locker room of a golf club. A cell phone on a bench rings and a man engages the hands free speaker-function and begins to talk. Everyone else in the room stops to listen.
MAN: "Hello"
WOMAN: "Honey, it's me. Are you at the club?"
MAN: "Yes."
WOMAN: "I am at the mall now and found this beautiful leather coat. It's only $1,000. Is it OK if I buy it?"
MAN: "Sure, go ahead if you like it that much."
WOMAN: "I also stopped by the Mercedes dealership and saw the new 2010 models. I saw one I really liked."
MAN: "How much?"
WOMAN: "$90,000."
MAN: "OK, but for that price I want it with all the options."
WOMAN: "Great! Oh, and one more thing... The house I wanted last year is back on the market. They're asking $950,000."
MAN: "Well, then go ahead and give them an offer of $900,000. They will probably take it. If not, we can go the extra 50 thousand. It's really a pretty good price."
WOMAN: "OK. I'll see you later! I love you so much!!"
MAN: "Bye! I love you, too."
The man hangs up. The other men in the locker room are staring at him in astonishment, mouths agape.....He smiles and asks: "Anyone know who this phone belongs to?"
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a compilation of third parties to real estate, financial services and other professionals for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
Friday, October 16, 2009
10/16/09
Being Friday trade will likely have a narrow range through the remainder of the day. The wider outlook is bearish for the bond and mortgage markets and it seems the market wants to settle in the 5.00% to 5.25% range for mortgage rates. So far this morning mortgage markets are somewhat soft. Have a great weekend
10/15/09
Good morning. With the stock markets receiving all the attention right now, the bond market still held on Wednesday. This morning’s Consumer Price Index report, which most had expected to remain tame, did not disappoint: the CPI was only +.2% last month. Food prices fell for the sixth time in the last eight months. And compared to the same period last year, consumer prices dropped 1.3%. We also had new Jobless Claims unexpectedly fall last week to their lowest level since January. New jobless claims have declined for five of the last six weeks, and the four-week moving average for new claims dipped 9,000 last week, declining for a sixth straight week. After the numbers this morning showing low inflation and an “ok” job market we find mortgage prices worse by between .125 and .250.
10/14/09
Treasuries were weak from the get-go this morning with the stock indexes roaring higher; the DJIA at 8:00 was trading +90. No signs of any weakness in the equity markets as the DJIA is now seen headed to 10K. JP Morgan profits were well above forecasts (about 7 times better), and is driving all bank and financial stocks higher this morning, taking the entire market up with it and Sept retail sales were better than expected this morning. As a result, mortgage rates have moved a bit higher.
At 2:00 the FOMC minutes are the day's biggest known-unknown, with the market sniffing for hints of dissention on rate hike timing among the ranks and inflation concern. While no one is expecting a tightening move from the Fed for many more months until unemployment bottoms, markets will be way out front in driving rates higher----slowly, but moving higher.
At 2:00 the FOMC minutes are the day's biggest known-unknown, with the market sniffing for hints of dissention on rate hike timing among the ranks and inflation concern. While no one is expecting a tightening move from the Fed for many more months until unemployment bottoms, markets will be way out front in driving rates higher----slowly, but moving higher.
10/13/09
Good morning. After the heavy selling on Thursday and Friday last week treasuries and mortgages are starting better this morning. As noted in Friday's report we expect increased market volatility this week; the reversal and heavy selling last week purged a lot of bullishness as interest rates finally hit their low yields. The trigger last Thursday was the weak demand for the 30 yr bond auction, comments from various Fed officials that the Fed was preparing to drain bank reserves with reverse repos, Australia increasing its base rates, and the exploding federal deficits driven by the mostly wasted bailout money. Mortgage rates fell below 5% a week ago, but they too will likely find it difficult to decline more. Regardless of the arguments either side of the rate debate; there is a limit that rates cannot exceed, we believe we have hit those limits as long as there is no major change in sentiment on the economic outlook. If you are “on the fence” you might want to consider making a move.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Mortgage Market Review - 10/12/09
So, as the song goes, “in 1492 Columbus sailed the ocean blue.” Christopher Columbus seems to be one of those heroes we learned about when we were young (like Custer), that upon closer investigation was not all they were cracked up to be. That’s why this holiday seems curious to me. However, I am happy for those that get a paid day off of work. Oh well, onto news. This weekend a slew of professionals tied to the housing sector made eager pleas to Congress requesting the $8000 first time homebuyer tax credit be extended. The benefit was part of the stimulus plan and is set to expire the end of November. The White House indicated the program "helped the economy" and led to "quite a bit of success" and noted consideration of extending the program. There are additional proposals in the Senate to not only extend the program but also to increase the tax credit and remove the first time homebuyer qualification. Unfortunately the cost to extend the credit is around $1 billion per month. This has politicians from both sides of the isle concerned. I’ll keep you posted on this. In the meantime, thanks for looking this over. I hope you find it useful and informative.
Fred
This Morning…Monday, October 12, 2009:
Nothing to report today; the bond and mortgage markets are closed for the Columbus Day holiday. Most markets are closed, but the stock market is not.
Last Week:
Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing mortgage interest rates higher. The Treasury auctions were mixed with the 3 and 10-year auctions showing decent foreign demand. Unfortunately the 30-year auction was a huge disappointment and caused mortgage interest rates to worsen Thursday. The fear of future rate hikes sent mortgage bonds lower Friday pushing mortgage interest rates higher.
Friday’s price action was a sign that markets can move quickly, and not always in expected ways. Why did rates shoot up Friday? As I’ve been mentioning, rates have been staying low for awhile and when markets move one way or the other to a large degree, or for an extended period of time, they are likely to rebound the other way – just like a rubber band. Plain and simple.
This Week:
After the big jump in interest rates last Thursday and Friday we expect to see increased market volatility in the bond and mortgage markets this week. Tomorrow we have a private consumer confidence survey, on Wednesday we have Retail Sales, Thursday Consumer Price Index and Jobless Claims, and then on Friday Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence number. The most significant economic data next week will be the CPI monthly inflation report. The minutes from the September 23 Fed meeting will come out on Wednesday.
EconomicIndicator
Retail Sales
Wednesday, Oct. 14,8:30 am, et
Down 2.0%
Important. A measure of consumer demand. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Business Inventories
Wednesday, Oct. 14,10:00 am, et
Down 0.8%
Low importance. An indication of stored-up capacity. A significantly larger increase may lead to lower rates.
Fed Minutes
Wednesday, Oct. 14,2:00 pm, et
None
Important. Details of the last Fed meeting will be thoroughly analyzed.
Consumer Price Index
Thursday, Oct. 15,8:30 am, et
Up 0.2%,Core up 0.1%
Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Lower figures may lead to lower rates.
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Thursday, Oct. 15,10:00 am, et
None
Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Industrial Production
Friday, Oct. 16,9:15 am, et
Up 0.1%
Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Capacity Utilization
Friday, Oct. 16,9:15 am, et
69.7%
Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Friday, Oct. 16,10:00 am, et
73.5
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Market Forecast:
The consumer price index will be the most important release this week. Any signs of inflation will generally not bode well for mortgage bonds. Retail sales and the Fed minutes are also likely to factor into trading this week. Any surprises may lead to mortgage interest rate volatility.
Some Humor:
An 80-year-old man goes for a physical. All of his tests come back with normal results. The doctor says, “Bert, everything looks great. How are you doing mentally and emotionally? Are you at peace with God?”Bert replies, “God and I are tight. He knows I have poor eyesight, so he's fixed it for when I get up in the middle of the night to go to the bathroom. Poof! The light goes on. When I'm done, poof, the light goes off.”
“Wow, that's incredible,” the doctor says.
A little later in the day, the doctor calls Bert's wife.
“Ethel,” he says, “Bert is doing fine but I had to call you because I'm in awe of his relationship with God. Is it true that he gets up during the night and poof, the light goes on in the bathroom, and when he's done, poof the light goes off?”
“OH MY GAWD!” Ethel exclaims. “He's piddling in the refrigerator again!”
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a compilation of third parties to real estate, financial services and other professionals for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
Fred
This Morning…Monday, October 12, 2009:
Nothing to report today; the bond and mortgage markets are closed for the Columbus Day holiday. Most markets are closed, but the stock market is not.
Last Week:
Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing mortgage interest rates higher. The Treasury auctions were mixed with the 3 and 10-year auctions showing decent foreign demand. Unfortunately the 30-year auction was a huge disappointment and caused mortgage interest rates to worsen Thursday. The fear of future rate hikes sent mortgage bonds lower Friday pushing mortgage interest rates higher.
Friday’s price action was a sign that markets can move quickly, and not always in expected ways. Why did rates shoot up Friday? As I’ve been mentioning, rates have been staying low for awhile and when markets move one way or the other to a large degree, or for an extended period of time, they are likely to rebound the other way – just like a rubber band. Plain and simple.
This Week:
After the big jump in interest rates last Thursday and Friday we expect to see increased market volatility in the bond and mortgage markets this week. Tomorrow we have a private consumer confidence survey, on Wednesday we have Retail Sales, Thursday Consumer Price Index and Jobless Claims, and then on Friday Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence number. The most significant economic data next week will be the CPI monthly inflation report. The minutes from the September 23 Fed meeting will come out on Wednesday.
EconomicIndicator
Retail Sales
Wednesday, Oct. 14,8:30 am, et
Down 2.0%
Important. A measure of consumer demand. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Business Inventories
Wednesday, Oct. 14,10:00 am, et
Down 0.8%
Low importance. An indication of stored-up capacity. A significantly larger increase may lead to lower rates.
Fed Minutes
Wednesday, Oct. 14,2:00 pm, et
None
Important. Details of the last Fed meeting will be thoroughly analyzed.
Consumer Price Index
Thursday, Oct. 15,8:30 am, et
Up 0.2%,Core up 0.1%
Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Lower figures may lead to lower rates.
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Thursday, Oct. 15,10:00 am, et
None
Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Industrial Production
Friday, Oct. 16,9:15 am, et
Up 0.1%
Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Capacity Utilization
Friday, Oct. 16,9:15 am, et
69.7%
Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Friday, Oct. 16,10:00 am, et
73.5
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Market Forecast:
The consumer price index will be the most important release this week. Any signs of inflation will generally not bode well for mortgage bonds. Retail sales and the Fed minutes are also likely to factor into trading this week. Any surprises may lead to mortgage interest rate volatility.
Some Humor:
An 80-year-old man goes for a physical. All of his tests come back with normal results. The doctor says, “Bert, everything looks great. How are you doing mentally and emotionally? Are you at peace with God?”Bert replies, “God and I are tight. He knows I have poor eyesight, so he's fixed it for when I get up in the middle of the night to go to the bathroom. Poof! The light goes on. When I'm done, poof, the light goes off.”
“Wow, that's incredible,” the doctor says.
A little later in the day, the doctor calls Bert's wife.
“Ethel,” he says, “Bert is doing fine but I had to call you because I'm in awe of his relationship with God. Is it true that he gets up during the night and poof, the light goes on in the bathroom, and when he's done, poof the light goes off?”
“OH MY GAWD!” Ethel exclaims. “He's piddling in the refrigerator again!”
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a compilation of third parties to real estate, financial services and other professionals for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
10/8/09
This morning we had our usual Thursday Jobless Claims, and later we have a 30-yr auction to get through. As a side note to keep in mind about unemployment, most figure that it will hit double digits soon. And for every person who shows up as unemployed in the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there’s another person who does not appear because they are either too discouraged to look for work, or working part-time and earning less. This shadow will have ramifications on consumer spending! That being said, new claims for jobless insurance fell more than expected, hitting a nine-month low last week. After the 5:30AM news we find mortgage prices a shade worse.
10/7/09
Yesterday’s 3-year note auction was decent and foreign investors were active. With no news today except for the 10-yr auction, mortgage security prices are a shade better than yesterday afternoon.
10/6/09
In the markets, yesterday was a relatively quiet day. Rates are still low, and the stock market improved somewhat, which tends to make the US populace feel a little better about things. In fact, in spite of the profit margins, interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are near last May’s levels. And 15-yr rates, where interestingly enough the principal portion of the early payments is about half of the total P&I, are the lowest in decades. So these rates, combined with the potential end of the $8,000 tax credit and some great pricing, are certainly helping to stabilize home sales. New home sales are the highest they’ve been in a year, and inventories are the lowest they’ve been in decades. One cloud on the horizon, as it always is, is this week's Treasury auction. Or, put another way, with the supply this week don’t look for a big drop in rates unless the stock markets continue their downward path, which may be unlikely. Today mortgage security prices are about unchanged.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Mortgage Market Review - 10/5/09
This Morning…Monday, October 5, 2009:
The bond and mortgage markets opened a little better this morning after a volatile session last Friday on the larger decline in Sept job losses than expected. At 9:30 the Dow is up +21 and mortgage prices are stable. We can rest up this week, given that the only scheduled news of substance is not until Thursday with Jobless Claims, and some trade figures on Thursday and Friday.
Last Week:
Last week was a volatile but good week for the rate markets. Mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels since last April. Treasuries continued in demand from foreign central banks and domestic investors; likely some of the buying is associated with new concerns that the economy isn't on the fast track of recovery as markets were expecting recently. Job losses in Sept were a third higher than markets were expecting, increasing the fears that unemployment is not close to bottoming. Consumer confidence came in weaker than expected and the ADP employment release showed more job losses than expected. The employment report Friday morning confirmed the ADP payroll data. With inflation fears waning and increasing uncertainty have helped to make interest rates decline in the past two weeks.
This Week:
Confidence for a quick economic recovery has been shaken a little but most analysts expect investors will step up to buy securities on any major dip in the market. There a just three first tier economic releases this week; Monday the Sept ISM services sector report, Wednesday the August consumer credit report, and on Thursday weekly jobless claims are expected be down from last week.
EconomicIndicator
3-year Treasury Note Auction
Tuesday, Oct. 6,1:30 pm, et
None
Important. $39 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
10-year Treasury Note Auction
Wednesday, Oct. 7,1:30 pm, et
None
Important. $20 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Consumer Credit
Wednesday, Oct. 7,2:00 pm, et
Down $9.5 billion
Low importance. A significantly larger than expected figure may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims
Thursday, Oct. 8,8:30 am, et
None
Moderately Important. A measure of employment. Job weakness may help rates improve.
30-year Treasury Bond Auction
Thursday, Oct. 9,1:30 pm, et
None
Important. $12 billion of bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Trade Data
Friday, Oct. 9,8:30 am, et
$33 billion deficit
Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
Market Forecast:
This week the economic calendar has little to chew on, but what there is significant in the running debate on the future of the economy. Another round of Treasury auctions hits the market this week. Solid foreign demand will help rates remain the same or improve slightly. Signs that foreign demand is diminishing will not bode well for mortgage interest rates. Weekly jobless claims set for release Thursday will carry a bit more weight than usual due to the lack of other economic data.
Some Humor:
Two women were out for a Saturday stroll. One had a Doberman and the other, a Chihuahua. As they walked down the street, the one with the Doberman said to her friend, "Let's go over to that bar for a drink."
The lady with the Chihuahua said, "We can't go in there. We've got the dogs with us."
The one with the Doberman said, "Just watch, and do as I do."
They walked over to the bar and the one with the Doberman put on a pair of dark glasses and started to walk in. The bouncer at the door said, "Sorry, lady, no pets allowed."
The woman with the Doberman said, "You don't understand. This is my seeing-eye dog."
The bouncer said, "A Doberman?"
The woman said, "Yes, they're using them now. They're very good."
The bouncer said, "OK, come on in."
The lady with the Chihuahua thought that convincing him that a Chihuahua was a seeing-eye dog, may be a bit more difficult, but thought, "What the heck," so she put on her dark glasses and started to walk in.
Once again the bouncer said, "Sorry, lady, no pets allowed."
The woman said, "You don't understand. This is my seeing-eye dog."
The bouncer said, "A Chihuahua?"
The woman said indignantly, "A Chihuahua? You've got to be kidding me, they gave me a Chihuahua???!
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a compilation of third parties to real estate, financial services and other professionals for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
The bond and mortgage markets opened a little better this morning after a volatile session last Friday on the larger decline in Sept job losses than expected. At 9:30 the Dow is up +21 and mortgage prices are stable. We can rest up this week, given that the only scheduled news of substance is not until Thursday with Jobless Claims, and some trade figures on Thursday and Friday.
Last Week:
Last week was a volatile but good week for the rate markets. Mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels since last April. Treasuries continued in demand from foreign central banks and domestic investors; likely some of the buying is associated with new concerns that the economy isn't on the fast track of recovery as markets were expecting recently. Job losses in Sept were a third higher than markets were expecting, increasing the fears that unemployment is not close to bottoming. Consumer confidence came in weaker than expected and the ADP employment release showed more job losses than expected. The employment report Friday morning confirmed the ADP payroll data. With inflation fears waning and increasing uncertainty have helped to make interest rates decline in the past two weeks.
This Week:
Confidence for a quick economic recovery has been shaken a little but most analysts expect investors will step up to buy securities on any major dip in the market. There a just three first tier economic releases this week; Monday the Sept ISM services sector report, Wednesday the August consumer credit report, and on Thursday weekly jobless claims are expected be down from last week.
EconomicIndicator
3-year Treasury Note Auction
Tuesday, Oct. 6,1:30 pm, et
None
Important. $39 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
10-year Treasury Note Auction
Wednesday, Oct. 7,1:30 pm, et
None
Important. $20 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Consumer Credit
Wednesday, Oct. 7,2:00 pm, et
Down $9.5 billion
Low importance. A significantly larger than expected figure may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims
Thursday, Oct. 8,8:30 am, et
None
Moderately Important. A measure of employment. Job weakness may help rates improve.
30-year Treasury Bond Auction
Thursday, Oct. 9,1:30 pm, et
None
Important. $12 billion of bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Trade Data
Friday, Oct. 9,8:30 am, et
$33 billion deficit
Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
Market Forecast:
This week the economic calendar has little to chew on, but what there is significant in the running debate on the future of the economy. Another round of Treasury auctions hits the market this week. Solid foreign demand will help rates remain the same or improve slightly. Signs that foreign demand is diminishing will not bode well for mortgage interest rates. Weekly jobless claims set for release Thursday will carry a bit more weight than usual due to the lack of other economic data.
Some Humor:
Two women were out for a Saturday stroll. One had a Doberman and the other, a Chihuahua. As they walked down the street, the one with the Doberman said to her friend, "Let's go over to that bar for a drink."
The lady with the Chihuahua said, "We can't go in there. We've got the dogs with us."
The one with the Doberman said, "Just watch, and do as I do."
They walked over to the bar and the one with the Doberman put on a pair of dark glasses and started to walk in. The bouncer at the door said, "Sorry, lady, no pets allowed."
The woman with the Doberman said, "You don't understand. This is my seeing-eye dog."
The bouncer said, "A Doberman?"
The woman said, "Yes, they're using them now. They're very good."
The bouncer said, "OK, come on in."
The lady with the Chihuahua thought that convincing him that a Chihuahua was a seeing-eye dog, may be a bit more difficult, but thought, "What the heck," so she put on her dark glasses and started to walk in.
Once again the bouncer said, "Sorry, lady, no pets allowed."
The woman said, "You don't understand. This is my seeing-eye dog."
The bouncer said, "A Chihuahua?"
The woman said indignantly, "A Chihuahua? You've got to be kidding me, they gave me a Chihuahua???!
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a compilation of third parties to real estate, financial services and other professionals for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
Friday, October 2, 2009
10/2/09
Good morning. Yesterday we had some decent economic news. Pending Home Sales were up in August, and are at their highest level since early 2007. We also had Construction Spending increase in August, which balanced out a revision to the July numbers.
Today was the “big daddy” unemployment numbers that always make it into the headlines Saturday morning. Estimates heading into today had job losses pegged at 175-200,000 for September with the Unemployment Rate hitting 9.8%. “Weak but improving” was the term some economist were using for the job market – until this morning. U.S. employers cut 263,000 jobs in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 9.8%. 9.8% is the highest rate since mid-1983 and payrolls had now dropped for 21 consecutive months. After the number stocks are getting hit again and mortgage prices have improved. Have a GREAT weekend!
Today was the “big daddy” unemployment numbers that always make it into the headlines Saturday morning. Estimates heading into today had job losses pegged at 175-200,000 for September with the Unemployment Rate hitting 9.8%. “Weak but improving” was the term some economist were using for the job market – until this morning. U.S. employers cut 263,000 jobs in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 9.8%. 9.8% is the highest rate since mid-1983 and payrolls had now dropped for 21 consecutive months. After the number stocks are getting hit again and mortgage prices have improved. Have a GREAT weekend!
10/1/09
Good morning. Today we’ve already seen the weekly Jobless Claims numbers, along with Personal Income and Consumption (which seem to be called “Outlays” these days). At 7AM we have the Construction Spending numbers, ISM Manufacturing Index, and Pending Home Sales. Spending/Consumption/Outlays, whatever, was up in August (the 4th month in a row and its fastest pace in nearly 8 years), and Personal Income was up as well. So the good news for the economy is that folks are spending, but the bad news is that the savings rate declined for the third straight month. But Jobless Claims were up from the prior week. Overall the numbers have pushed rates slightly lower:
Tomorrow we will have some important data. Estimates for Nonfarm Payroll are ranging around a loss of 175-200k. Lately the news about the economy has indicated that not everything is rosy. As always, it is a wait and see attitude regarding the economy. Hang in there.
Tomorrow we will have some important data. Estimates for Nonfarm Payroll are ranging around a loss of 175-200k. Lately the news about the economy has indicated that not everything is rosy. As always, it is a wait and see attitude regarding the economy. Hang in there.
9/30/09
Today we had the ADP (non farm employment) jobs number which showed more job losses than estimated, and the final GDP number for the 2nd quarter. The Commerce Department's final number for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) showed it fell at a 0.7% annual rate instead of the 1.0% decline reported last month, in theory better for the economy and worse for rates especially since he economy is believed to have rebounded in the last few months – or at least leveled off. After the news mortgage prices are slightly worsened. No additional data due; all about trading off stocks through the rest of the day
9/29/09
Good morning. It is a little quiet today. We have already had the S&P Case-Shiller Index, expected to have fallen about 14% in July from a year earlier, the least in 17 months. Optimists point to this as a sign that the housing slump is winding down. Pessimists note that we’re still down! Regardless, rates have crept up slightly after the number. A little later this morning we’ll have Consumer Confidence numbers. Stay tuned
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
