3/16/10

Most rate prices are a bit improved this morning as mortgage bonds hold onto modest improvements from Monday. Treasuries are helping boost mortgages ahead of the Fed’s rate decision due at 11:15am today. The Fed is expected to leave the funds rate unchanged and reiterate its “extended period” language of keeping it at its current range of 0 - .250% and while some are voicing concern over this policy, today’s economic news gives the current Fed stance breathing room in the form of lower import prices (inflation from abroad) and poor housing starts. And while weather appears to be a large part of the housing start data, it is clear the housing market in general is still in the proverbial toilet with a looming wave of foreclosures coming. A trifecta of Obama economic advisors voiced a similar view of the employment picture, predicting the jobless rate will remain elevated for an extended period of time. Given this environment, the Fed will be in no hurry to raise rates. Stay tuned for the release as the market will parse the verbiage carefully and volatility could result. However, few expect much market moving statements including anything to alter the planned expiration of the MBS purchase program.