7/2/10

Most rates prices are unchanged with yesterday as mortgage bonds hold onto Thursday’s levels after some earlier volatility. Bonds were improved after the initial jobs report was released, then turned negative, but have since recovered to near unchanged. Expect some more choppiness as the holiday weekend close approaches and Wall Street heads for the Hamptons. The jobs data was weak not just in the pure employment number but also in the reduction of the labor force as many simply give up—a troubling sign and asterisk to the “false” lower unemployment rate (1.2 million workers have given up and don’t count as “unemployed”). The bond market is trading at “crisis” levels and seems like it wants to sell off despite the poor data. And though we have fears of a double dip and sovereign debt issues, we’re not in the day Lehman failed mode. A sell off could happen at any time. No fireworks today folks as the big jobs report yields a level day so far for interest rates. So far… Have a safe and happy Fourth

6/30/10

Most rate prices worsened today as mortgage bonds lose some ground. The house voted to extend the deadline of the homebuyer tax credit to September and the Senate will vote on it today. The house is also voting on financial regulation today as last minute jockeying takes place as upcoming elections are in sight. Across the pond, the ECB lending facility was tapped less than expected by the European banks, suggesting more strength in that sector than many analysts thought ahead of the upcoming stress tests. Stocks are attempting to pare some of the massive sell off from Tuesday despite less than expected ADP private payroll figures.

6/29/10

Rates are the same as yesterdays close this morning, but even with low rates, mortgage traders reported low volumes. Personal Income was up slightly and Personal Consumption (spending) rose .2% – perhaps the consumer is becoming more confident…? The Chicago Fed Survey fell slightly. But critics say that the billions of dollars of stimulus have only moved the problems with our economy from the private to the public sector.
Here this morning interest rates are taking a bit of a breather. The stock markets are pointing to a big down day,